Investing in solar or stocks: A look at long-term returns

Solar is a long-term investment that generates predictable financial and environmental returns. I know, no duh! And, of course, solar does not make sense for everyone. It’s an option — vis-a-vis purchasing electricity from PG&E — much like making an investment in the stock market is an option.

This week we have fielded a surprising (given all that’s going on with COVID-19) number of calls from homeowners in our community. What surprising, too, was their rationale: The financial markets are cratering, there’s great uncertainty, perhaps now is the time to evaluate investing in solar for my home. 

To wit, here’s a comparison of the returns generated via a hypothetical $20,000 investment in the stock market and in solar for your home.

First, if you invested $20,000 in an S&P 500 index fund in January 1995, over 25 years (by December 31, 2019) you would have generated an 8.015% annualized return. Not bad. And, of course, this does not account for the past three weeks of volatility; the S&P (as of March 20) is down 29% since the beginning of February 2020.

Regardless, let’s stick with the 8% annualized return metric for the stock market.

Next, if you invested $20,000 in a solar system for your home, here’s a summary of your 25-year returns:

- Total investment: $20,000

- Less, 26% federal tax credit: $5,200

- Net investment: $14,800

This solar system (standard size for a home in Yolo County) would generate the following returns:

- Year-one PG&E savings: $2,153

- 25-year PG&E savings: $86,394 (assumes 4.5% annual PG&E rate inflation)

Simplified: In the first year, solar will generate a 14.5% annual return. Over its 25-year warrantied life, solar will generate an annualized return of 23%, buoyed by annual PG&E rate increases.

And, homeowners do not pay taxes on their solar investment returns … utility savings are not taxable. But, we do pay capital gains on our stock market investments.

Net-net, if you invest in solar today and if PG&E’s rates increase 4.5%/year, you will generate a 23% annualized return over the next 25 years that is immune to the volatility of the stock market and the macro economy.

Perfunctory caveat: Consult your investment and/or tax advisor for investment advice. Or, of course, feel free to contact us if you would like to evaluate solar.

Most important: Be well, stay well, take care of our community. We will get through this.

Purchased a home and want to add solar panels? Five considerations to ponder

This week, we have been engaged by three new homeowners to help them evaluate solar. Thereby, we begin with a simple, open-ended question: Why solar, why now? Responses vary, but generally their motive is twofold: Why not, since I just bought my home; and, PG&E’s rates are only going to go up. While we agree with the latter, we believe the former warrants consideration.

Before adding solar to your recently purchased home, here are five considerations:

1. The condition of your roof. Since new homebuyers have recently had their roof inspected, they have an objective evaluation regarding the condition and remaining life of their roof. In simple terms, if your roof has less than 10 years of remaining/warrantied life, you do not want to install solar (on such roof planes); if your roof has 10+ years, you’re in good shape.

2. Historical/future electricity use. Since new homeowners have limited (or zero) electricity use data, we recommend one of four approaches (to forecast future use and accurately size and model their prospective solar system):

• Live in your home for 12 months and, thereby, quantify how much electricity you will use.

• Wait until you have occupied your home for six months -- particularly 1-2 months of summer use, when electricity demand peaks. (Thereby, we can model 12 months of electricity demand based on your use pattern and comparable homes).

• Employ comparable homes’ electricity use (based on their vintage, neighborhood, size, occupancy, etcetera) to model your home’s future electricity use. Fortunately, we have several hundred data sets — electricity use patterns for homes in all neighborhoods in our community — to approximate future use.

• If it’s not too late, request 12 months of PG&E data from the home seller. Oftentimes, this is a futile effort, but it’s worth trying.

3. Home improvements. Stating the obvious: Many new homeowners improve their homes. Adding a pool and/or hot tub will increase your electricity use, as would replacing your furnace with an electric heat pump (an increasingly common practice for Repower homeowners). Conversely, replacing windows, adding insulation, or installing a variable speed pool pump reduces your electricity use. In all cases, we model the impact vis-a-vis solar system sizing.

4. Electric vehicle. If you own — or intend to purchase, in the next 12-24 months — an eV, you’d  want to factor future charging of your car into the sizing of your solar system. We find that eVs travel 4 miles per kWh of electricity. The math is simple: Take the number of miles/year you anticipate driving and multiply it by the percentage of charging you believe will be done at home (versus your workplace, public chargers, etc.). Then, divide the number by 4 to quantify additional electricity use (in kWh). For example, if you intend to drive 10,000 miles per year and charge your car 80% of the time at home (fueling 8,000 miles), you will consume 2,000 kWh of electricity.

5. Your electrical panel. Though adding solar does not increase your electrical demand, we need to ensure your electrical panel has sufficient capacity (or space) to accommodate the solar inverter. Furthermore, we will evaluate non-solar changes to your electrical demand — car charger, spa, swimming pool, heat pump, etcetera — to determine your panel’s amenability. (We perform load calculations and review your future electricity use with the city or county to ensure solar will work.)

 Net-net, going solar is simple, but there are a few nuances worthy of consideration … particularly if you recently purchased a home. Feel free to contact us to learn more and receive a free solar assessment.

PG&E burns, solar rises

It goes without saying — but, here we say it — that last week was a really bad week for PG&E. Surprising? No, it was a runaway train wreck apt to happen, particularly as PG&E’s liabilities for the San Bruno gas line explosions and wildfires over the past two years amplified. A few months ago — pre-PGE bankruptcy — California PUC Chairman Michael Picker opined, “PG&E is too big to succeed.”

What’s next for PG&E? Myriad opinions have been tendered over the past week. While there’s no consensus, one thing is clear: PG&E’s rates are going to increase; we, the ratepayers, will bear part of the burden.

There’s also consensus that those of us who have solar (300,000+ net-metering customers in PG&E territory) are safe. PG&E cannot arbitrarily change current net-metering rules, as established by the PUC. Furthermore, solar/distributed generation is part of the solution, not an element of the problem. When property owners generate electricity via solar panels, energy use is centralized and the burden on the grid is mitigated. Solar is safe and secure.

Over the past week, we’ve chatted with a dozen or so prospective solar homeowners. Why solar, why now? we ask. Almost verbatim responses: Now that PG&E is going into bankruptcy and rates are destined to rise, the time seems right. (Secondarily, several homeowners have shared they view solar as a sage investment vis-a-vis volatile financial markets; solar generates a ~15% annual yield.)

While PG&E’s future is unknown, solar provides certainty for homeowners. Today, PG&E’s baseline (“Tier 1”) electricity rate is 22 cents per kWh. For Repower homeowners, the amortized cost to generate solar electricity is ~8 cents per kWh. With PG&E, you are at risk of (and have no control over) future rate increases. When you go solar, you lock in your price of electricity for 25 years.

And, the sun always rises :)

Thinking about going solar? Five key considerations

There’s a lot of sunshine being monetized by our community. In Davis alone, one in four single family residences have solar PV systems (versus approximately 5% in PG&E territory). Such rapid adoption is driven by four factors: PG&E’s ever-escalating electricity rates, a sharp decline in the cost of solar systems, the 30% federal tax credit, and (increasingly) grand concerns about our climate and planet.

The formative stage of the Repower program involved extensive research. We assessed the quality, reliability and pricing of solar equipment; the efficacy of solar installation contractors; the pricing (through a group purchase program) of solar; the most viable financing options; and, the most systematic installation methodology. Since pulling the pieces together and enabling the Repower program, we have had the fortune of helping more homeowners in our community invest in solar than any other solar provider.

If you are pondering going solar, here are five key considerations:

1. How long do you intend to reside in your home? If your horizon is less than five years, think twice; if more than five (and given you have a de facto agreement with PG&E to purchase electricity), dig deep.

2. What is the condition (and remaining life) of your roof? Solar systems have a 25-year production warranty. Though it is possible (and common) to replace a roof with an existing solar system, if your roof’s remaining life is less than 10 years, you should consider replacing all or part (i.e., the portion under the solar panels) of your roof.

3. What are the installation contractor’s qualifications? Thereby, it’s critical to speak with local homeowners who have worked with the contractor. Furthermore, you should seek a 10-year workmanship warranty and ensure the installation contractor is financially solvent. Finally, the contractor’s experience with your type of roof is paramount.

4. Who manufacturers the solar panels and inverter(s)? The assessment herein is twofold: What is the efficacy and reliability of the products, and what is the financial solvency (i.e., strength of balance sheet) of the manufacturer, and thus the validity of their performance warranty. Bloomberg qualifies a dozen or so solar panel manufacturers as “Tier 1” or “investment grade” … make sure you’re purchasing a product from this class.

5. Who will own the system and/or how will you pay for it? Frankly, leasing a solar system — whereby your solar panels are owned by a third-party, tax equity fund — is a raw deal for homeowners. You should own your system. Many homeowners employ a home equity line of credit (HELOC) or credit union financing (Yolo Federal Credit Union) to finance their solar system. (Contact us if you would like to learn more about Property Assessed Clean Energy [PACE] financing … we helped developed the first PACE programs in Sacramento and Yolo counties.)

At the end of the day, you'd like to know the likelihood your solar system will meet or exceed its energy forecast. Most solar companies use the same forecasting tools. It's the assumptions that feed these models that vary. You should feel confident the forecast presented is reasonable and not some pie-in-the-sky result. Hence, ask solar companies the proportion of systems installed that meet or exceed the originally forecast energy generation. (You should also ask the number of systems monitored to ensure it's a meaningful proportion.)

We do not have all the answers — there is no surefire, perfect solar solution — but we do have strong opinions and extensive experience in our community. Nobody wants to get a bad deal or make a short-sighted decision; filtering through the noise of pesky solar solicitations can be migraine-inducing. To wit, feel free to contact us if you need a hand.

Synergetics, à la Aleksy Golovka

[Originally posted August 21, 2015]

Did you know that Stanford University, the alma mater of Repower cofounder John Walter, has a Solar Poetry section, among many fascinating soulful solar-related expressions--art, photography, folklore, ancient observatsion and more--on its Stanford Solar Center website? Check it out. 

Synergetics is written by Aleksy Golovka, a Russian Solar-Terrestrial Physicist. Enjoy! And, by the way, if you've been wondering about whether or not going solar is right for you, fill out the form to the right of this post. We'll get back to you right away. 

Synergetics

Through the telescope I observe the Sun,
And I must aver: no, the ancient
But still unanswered key question
Of life's relation to the Sun is not simple.

A flower grows, collecting in its stem
Particles of air, and moisture, and earth.
And in about the same way, playing in forms,
A spot grows, adorning the Sun's face.

Cascades of flares, webs of fibrils,
A waterfall-like sheet of a prominence -
The work of the fire-breathing dragon,
Bathing in plasma, stuns us.

Such harmony of motion exists
In a crystal, a laser, in boiling wax,
The arraying of a row of instants
And positions into a regular network.

We are close to the truth! The mosaic of neurons
Organizes what I took in with a glance:
I think! Bowing, I proffer to the Sun
The Sunlike globe of my head.

-=Aleksey Golovko=-
Senior Researcher of the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics