Investing in solar or stocks: A look at long-term returns

Solar is a long-term investment that generates predictable financial and environmental returns. I know, no duh! And, of course, solar does not make sense for everyone. It’s an option — vis-a-vis purchasing electricity from PG&E — much like making an investment in the stock market is an option.

This week we have fielded a surprising (given all that’s going on with COVID-19) number of calls from homeowners in our community. What surprising, too, was their rationale: The financial markets are cratering, there’s great uncertainty, perhaps now is the time to evaluate investing in solar for my home. 

To wit, here’s a comparison of the returns generated via a hypothetical $20,000 investment in the stock market and in solar for your home.

First, if you invested $20,000 in an S&P 500 index fund in January 1995, over 25 years (by December 31, 2019) you would have generated an 8.015% annualized return. Not bad. And, of course, this does not account for the past three weeks of volatility; the S&P (as of March 20) is down 29% since the beginning of February 2020.

Regardless, let’s stick with the 8% annualized return metric for the stock market.

Next, if you invested $20,000 in a solar system for your home, here’s a summary of your 25-year returns:

- Total investment: $20,000

- Less, 26% federal tax credit: $5,200

- Net investment: $14,800

This solar system (standard size for a home in Yolo County) would generate the following returns:

- Year-one PG&E savings: $2,153

- 25-year PG&E savings: $86,394 (assumes 4.5% annual PG&E rate inflation)

Simplified: In the first year, solar will generate a 14.5% annual return. Over its 25-year warrantied life, solar will generate an annualized return of 23%, buoyed by annual PG&E rate increases.

And, homeowners do not pay taxes on their solar investment returns … utility savings are not taxable. But, we do pay capital gains on our stock market investments.

Net-net, if you invest in solar today and if PG&E’s rates increase 4.5%/year, you will generate a 23% annualized return over the next 25 years that is immune to the volatility of the stock market and the macro economy.

Perfunctory caveat: Consult your investment and/or tax advisor for investment advice. Or, of course, feel free to contact us if you would like to evaluate solar.

Most important: Be well, stay well, take care of our community. We will get through this.

How PG&E’s “EV” rate schedule benefits solar homeowners

We have had the fortune of helping more than 50 electric vehicle owners go solar. As shared in prior posts, fueling your car with solar electricity is the least expensive form of (automotive) transport: Your amortized cost to generate solar electricity is ~8 cents per kWh, and you yield about four miles per kWh of electricity. Trite but true: Driving on sunshine makes sense.

Better yet, when you enjoy an electric vehicle you can employ PG&E’s “EV” rate schedule. This time-of-use rate program incents EV drivers to charge their car (and shift other electricity demand) to “off-peak” hours, namely 11 pm to 7 am, Monday through Friday, and all weekend/holiday hours, sans 3-7 pm.

Here are PG&E’s “EV” rates per kWh:

• Peak (2-9 pm, M-F): $0.33 (winter); $0.48 (summer)

• Part Peak (7am-2pm; 9-11pm M-F): $0.20 (winter); $0.26 (summer)

• Off Peak (11pm-7am M-F; weekends/holidays all hours except 3-7pm): $0.13

When your solar panels make more energy than your home uses, you are credited by PG&E via their net-metering program. Hence, the greater the delta (solar generation less household consumption) during “peak” periods, your monetary credits are amplified.

Generally, Repower homeowners who enroll in PG&E’s EV rate schedule only generate ~80% of the electricity they use to cover 100% of their electricity costs. This is simply due to the time-of-use rate schedule and the advantage of buying electricity at a low rate and getting credited at nearly 4x. Very cool.

With apologies for the bevy of metrics, let’s review an example. Below is the electricity use for a fairly standard Davis homeowner who charges their electric vehicle 12,000 miles per year at home.

Pre-solar electricity use and costs (on PG&E’s “E-1” program):

We then sized and modeled a solar system to eliminate the homeowner’s electricity bill: A 4.8 kW, 15-panel system installed at 270-degree azimuth (due west), no shading. The solar panels are projected to generate 6,493 kWh in year one, thus covering 70% of the homeowner’s electricity use.

If the homeowner did not own an electric vehicle, they would (upon going solar) enroll in PG&E’s “TOU-A” rate schedule. Like the EV rate, TOU-A values electricity based on demand (“peak” period is 3-8 pm), but there’s little difference between peak and off-peak periods.

Solar economics under the default E-TOU (A) rate schedule:

The homeowner’s year-end, true-up cost would be $645 — the solar system is too small. This is not bad, but …

… under the EV rate schedule, the homeowner generates significant time-of-generation credits/leverage. Their year-end bill would be $108.

Simple but lucrative: The homeowner will save an additional $500 per year through the EV rate schedule. Contact us today with questions and/or if you’d like a free solar assessment.

Valley Clean Energy is here: Choice is good for solar homeowners

Change can be a good thing. Or, it can be bad. Or, somewhere in between.

Choice, however, is good. If you had one option — for anything you do or buy — you’re stuck. You have no choice and must opt for the sole solution.

Choice enables consumers to make a decision, to weigh options and decide what’s in their best interest. Choice makes markets healthy and efficient, thus benefiting consumers.

For the past few generations, Yolo County residents have not had a choice regarding their electricity: PG&E, the de facto monopoly, was it. That ceased in June with the debut of Valley Clean Energy (VCE). Though nothing changed with our electricity delivery, customer service and billing, VCE was a change that confused some. This is understandable: Consumers now had a choice.

As we’ve shared in prior posts (here, here and here), if you do not have solar panels, VCE is a no brainer: Participate and you’ll save a few bucks each month while reducing your carbon footprint. Or, stick with PG&E and pay more to an investor-owned utility for dirtier energy. Case closed.

Furthermore, if you have solar or are considering going solar, VCE is a viable option. It provides solar homeowners with a choice for how to net-meter their electricity.

When VCE commenced its solar net-metering program in June, we identified and shared a few (in our opinion) flaws to their accounting methodology. In short order, VCE staff absorbed our input, consulted the public, and amended their solar program. This efficient, transparent and productive process evidences the virtue of a publicly-controlled program. (Imagine trying to get PG&E to modify their solar program … no chance.)

Effective January 1, 2019, VCE’s new net-metering program will take effect and homeowners with solar will have a choice. Here’s a quick summary:

• If you installed solar before June 1, 2018 you will stick with your annual true-up date (that you currently employ with PG&E) and you will be enrolled in VCE’s program at your true-up.

• If you went solar after June 1, 2018, your annual true-up date will be in March.

• In both cases, your net-metering accounting will occur every month (versus once/year with PG&E). At the end of your 12-month solar accounting calendar, your true up ($) will be the same, except …

• … with VCE, if your solar system generates more electricity than you use in a given month, you will receive an additional one-cent per kWh credit.

Importantly, when you go solar, you receive “permission to operate” from PG&E and you are grandfathered in for 20 years under the prevailing (California Public Utilities Commission mandated) net-metering program. Participating in VCE’s net-metering program does not impact your 20-year utility agreement. (This is critical; we received written acknowledgement from PG&E.)

So, congratulations, you now have a choice. Options are good and, for solar homeowners, VCE will put a few extra dollars in your pocket without harming your solar interconnection agreement.

Feel free to stop by our workspace or contact us with questions. Viva community choice!

Understanding your PG&E-Valley Clean Energy Bill

Valley Clean Energy (VCE) commenced service as an alternative electricity provider June 1. As discussed here, this is great news … your electricity costs will be reduced by ~2-3% and you will enjoy (though you can’t see/taste/touch the electrons!) cleaner electricity. (If you’re among the 7,000 property owners in Davis, Woodland and unincorporated Yolo County who have already gone solar, this article has no utility for you; here’s a recent article about Valley Clean Energy’s Net Energy Metering program.)

Now that we’re a few months into VCE’s service, many homeowners are trying to interpret their new (PG&E + VCE) electricity bill. Here’s a quick tutorial:

• Page three of your PG&E statement quantifies your electricity use and charges. (Yes, July was a brutally warm month; electricity use/costs are quite high for most everyone.) Therein, you will see two additions:

1. A Generation Credit representing your Valley Clean Energy credit for the electricity generation component of your use.
2. A Power Charge Indifference Adjustment, essentially the fee PG&E charges to participated in VCE.

Next, turn to page four to review “Details of VALLEY CLEAN ENERGY ALLIANCE Electric Generation Charges”. Per the below, there is a net charge of $93.28.

Finally, simple math to determine how much you will pay relative to PG&E:

- VCE Electricity Generation Charge: $93.28

- Power Charge Indifference Adjustment: $43.90

- Less, PG&E Generation Credit: -$141.43

Hence, under the above scenario the homeowner saved $4.25 this month through VCE.

Annualized, this homeowner will save ~$40 for participating in VCE. It’s not enough to buy a bottle of Jordan cab, but perhaps you can enjoy a tasty meal at Mikuni’s.

Valley Clean Energy works.

Valley Clean Energy + Solar: Just the facts

Our community cares. A lot, about a lot of stuff. With conviction, unfortunately, there’s oftentimes confusion. Valley Clean Energy (VCE) is a contemporary example.

On April 18, we provided our perspective regarding VCE. In short order, it became the most-read blog post in the history of our site. Again, lots of curiosity (and some confusion), especially via several NextDoor threads.

As we originally opined, if you do not have solar, VCE is a no brainer: Do it (read: do not opt out) and you’ll save a few bucks and enjoy cleaner electricity. Nothing changes with your service — PG&E still manages the grid and bills you. There’s no downside (unless you’re an anti-government conspiracy theorist). Effective June 1, you were enrolled in VCE … enjoy!

Back in April, we were less definitive about VCE for the ~7,000 NEM (net-energy metering, or solar) customers in Davis, Woodland and unincorporated Yolo County. At that point, our recommendation was to love the one you’re with: Stick with PG&E until a few details (read: our concerns) were ironed out. Thereafter, we invested considerable time working with VCE staff to mitigate our concerns and improve VCE’s net-metering program. We also recommended they put the program on hold.

Fortunately, VCE was all ears and brains: They tabled the NEM program, listened to our concerns, analyzed our recommended changes, and revised their net-metering program. Then, they held public forums in Davis and Woodland … more than 90 people attended each. VCE is diligently doing the right thing.

We reached out to Jim Parks, Director, Customer Care and Marketing with VCE, for his perspective:

Here is what we are proposing, pending VCE Board approval in September.

• Residential NEM customers will keep their annual billing cycle unless their annual balance exceeds $500.  Then they will go to monthly billing.
• NEM customers will retain their existing true-up date.
• VCE pays 1 cent per kWh more than PG&E for excess energy on a monthly basis. This will roll over as credits during excess generation months and will be trued-up on the annual true-up date if needed.  Over $100  credit balances will be paid to customer. Under $100 balance will roll over as a credit.
• For excess energy at the end of the year, VCE pays what PG&E pays (wholesale) plus 1 cent per kWh, providing a financial benefit to NEM customers.
• The transition from PG&E to VCE will occur on the customers true-up date in 2019.  This means that NEM customers will be moving to VCE over the course of the entire year, depending on their true-up date.

The transition from PG&E to VCE will be seamless to NEM customers and they will automatically receive the higher incentives that VCE provides. Customers also receive other VCE benefits including choice of providers, local control, higher levels of green and carbon-free energy, and reinvestment in the community.

Thanks, Jim. Count us in. 

And, a final note: This process of rapid improvement and adaptation would not occur with an investor-owned utility. VCE listened to its constituents, applied common sense and logic, and improved their solar program … in a matter of months. Yet another reason why local control makes sense, let alone the virtues of reducing utility bills and our carbon footprints.

Feel free to contact us or stop by if you’d like to discuss further.

Valley Clean Energy: Should I stay or should I go?

We have fielded a few dozen calls, emails and text messages over the past week, primarily from Repower homeowners inquiring about Valley Clean Energy (VCE) piqued by recent VCE mailings. Simple questions: What is it? Should I opt out? What are the pros and cons?

Background: We had the privilege of serving on the City of Davis’ Community Choice Energy Advisory Committee. Over 14 months, our volunteer group deliberated yea/nae (should we do this?) and, if yea, in what form? Could be a curse of too much information, but we have been immersed since the start.

On June 1, all PG&E customers in the cities of Davis and Woodland and unincorporated Yolo County will be transitioned to VCE. By statute, this is how it works: You are automatically enrolled in the program; if you do not want to participate, you need to opt out.

What will happen? In simple terms, you will see a slight reduction in your electricity bill (about 2.5%, for starters) and you will enjoy, though it’s not tangible, cleaner electricity (i.e., electricity with a higher renewable energy content than what PG&E currently serves). Nothing will change with your service: PG&E will continue to manage the grid and provide customer service. In short, you will have cleaner electricity at a lower cost, with funds channeled through a community (Joint Powers Authority) organization. Here's a thorough FAQ from VCE's site.

What’s not to like? In our albeit biased opinion, nothing. And, the hallmark program (Marin Clean Energy) has proven that home and business owners can reduce their bills and their carbon footprints.

If you do not have solar panels on your home or business, do it. (In other words, do nothing … you’re enrolled.)

If you do have solar, the decision is a bit more nuanced. When you went solar, you received a 20-year commitment (Net Energy Metering Agreement) from PG&E to credit you for your solar-generated electricity for a period of 20 years. With VCE, this agreement is not broached: It’s between you and PG&E, regardless of who supplies your electricity. If your solar system was well-designed, it should eliminate/cover 90-100% of your electricity use. Hence, you are independently fulfilling the mission of VCE: Transition our community to clean, less expensive energy. And if you have solar, VCE will provide you with a bit more compensation that PG&E does. Click here for a thorough VCE overview for solar customers.

The wildcard: PG&E (and the other investor-owned utilities [IOUs] in California) are not happy. Community choice energy programs are a direct, competitive threat to their monopolies. Within a year, approximately 50% of IOU ratepayers will have access to community choice programs. PG&E has not dropped its shoulders, shrugged, and opined, “So be it.” They have (unsuccessfully and vigorously) fought community choice programs over the past decade, and their will is intensifying. What can PG&E do to solar owners (and all rate payers) in advent of community choice energy? 

With apologies for the ambiguity, feel free to contact us with questions: Click here, call 530-564-4292, or swing by our office (909 Fifth Street; the old Dairy Queen). We may not have definitive answers, but we are happy to elaborate.